Capacity Expansion Sensitivity Analysis
Capacity expansion sensitivity analysis tests how changes in inputs such as fuel prices, technology costs, carbon policy, or load growth affect the optimal resource mix identified by planning models. Analysts rerun capacity expansion models across multiple scenarios to understand the robustness of investment pathways and to inform regulatory decisions.
Sensitivities highlight tipping points where storage becomes more economic than peakers, where transmission upgrades outweigh distributed solutions, or where policy changes radically alter procurement plans. Results feed into integrated resource plans, transmission plans, and investor presentations.
Developers scrutinize sensitivity outputs to anticipate procurement timing and to identify technologies that perform well under most scenarios. Regulators require transparent documentation of assumptions so stakeholders can replicate results and trust planning outcomes.
Sophisticated planning teams now integrate probabilistic sensitivities and climate scenarios, reflecting the increasing complexity of resource adequacy under high renewable penetration.
Technical Details
- •Runs multiple capacity expansion model iterations with varied inputs
- •Analyzes changes in technology selection, timing, and system cost
- •Feeds into IRPs, transmission planning, and policy roadmaps
- •Requires transparent documentation of assumptions and datasets
- •Often paired with stochastic or probabilistic modeling for resilience
Why It Matters
Sensitivity analysis reveals which development strategies remain economic across uncertain futures. Tera aggregates model outputs, assumptions, and policy drivers so investors can align project portfolios with resilient pathways.
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